Years ago, my friend Saleh Gadi Johar, who was trying to explain to a self-described nationalist why Eritrea needs an opposition instead of having people work with the government to correct its mistakes, said “Opposition is natural. Even supernatural: even God has an opposition and they are called atheists.” I remember that statement when the post “Game Over” Eritreans asked, “what will become of the Eritrean opposition?”
1. “The opposition” encompasses anyone and anything that has expressed its disapproval of, and vote of lack of confidence in, the manner that Eritrea is governed. As such, the opposition is a “pressure group” which includes organized entities with party platforms and programs (armed and unarmed, inside and outside Ethiopia), civil society with missions including single-issue groups (women’s empowerment, “Free Aster” (video), “One Day Seium“), media outlets (short wave radio, internet radio), talk show programs (Paltalk), websites (published in English, Arabic, Tigrinya), and individuals who are considered, in today’s parlance, “influencers” with large following (video.)
2. Based on the resources and energy the Isaias government spends from its meager resources to counter and neutralize them, one can say with absolute certainty it considers them a threat. (See Saudi Leaks. See also the hacking of the hugely listened-to Erena) But maintenance of its image as the sole opinion-shaper of Eritrea requires the Eritrean government to hold all the following views simultaneously: they don’t exist, they are not Eritreans, they are traitors. Clearly if you don’t exist, you can’t be anything; if you are not an Eritrean, you can’t be a traitor. And if you are a traitor, it assumes there is a country with laws and a conviction.
3. Now, with respect to the way forward for all these organizations. They were not formed because there was no peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. They were formed because there are huge problems with the way the country is being run. So what will they do next? If your movement is “Free Aster Yohannes” you won’t stop until they free her. If they do, your mission is accomplished. If your movement is set up because you are advocating for religious rights, you won’t stop until they are freed. If they are freed, your mission is done. If you are an exiled media (assenna, for example, or Erena), you won’t stop until you are allowed to practice your craft in your own country or those who can do so make you irrelevant. Etc, etc.
4. Similarly, with the political organizations which have political platforms that are presenting themselves (two word definition for all of them would be “decentralized, self-rule”) as an alternative to the PFDJ’s political platform. They will continue their struggle until they presumably can make it a reality or they are defeated. The confusion here might be that some have convinced themselves all of them are dependent on Ethiopia’s Weyane and with that gone, poof, they will be gone too. (See paragraph 1.) But this is PFDJ propaganda and like all PFDJ propaganda (see also: “if only Weyane would be gone the sanctions would be gone”), it will be proven false. But don’t take my word for it, check back with me in 3 months.
5. As to the opposition’s influence: to my knowledge, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Reporters Without Borders, US State Department, Human Rights Council do not have reporters or representatives in Eritrea. Yet, they were able to show to the world the monstrous nature of the Isaias regime. So when people say the opposition is “demonizing a demon”, well, how do they think the world knew he was a demon to begin with? And, from my perspective, since the Isaias government has an oversized media cranking out propaganda of what an upstanding world citizen it is, the least the opposition can do (the very least) is to share with the world how demonic it is.
6. The demands of the Eritrean opposition, as fragmented as it is, remain constant and consistent and you will hear them at all demonstrations they hold:
a. Free all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience
b. End the undeclared but defacto state of emergency
c. End indefinite national service
d. End culture of violence and impunity
e. Bring about rule of law and constitutionalism
7. These are not requests that are dependent on some promise of good behavior. They are citizens demands on the Isaias Government. And I added the word “government” so you don’t accuse me of having fixation on the man. In truth, I believe in “truth-in-labeling” and the Eritrean Government has demonstrated, over and over, that it is a one-man show with a rotating band of enforcers. It believes in nothing except in ensuring that it is executing the wishes of its boss.
8. The most valid criticism of the opposition, is that because of its inability to articulate its view and its vision, nobody knows what it stands for. Perhaps the best way to summarize it in contrast with PFDJ:
| Issue | What PFDJ Believes/Practices | What Opposition Believes |
|---|---|---|
| Eritrea is best governed as | a unitary state with power concentrated in Asmara | decentralized state with provinces exercising self rule |
| Civil Liberties: freedom of speech, assembly, worship | Strongly restricted | Liberalized |
| Human Rights | Right to food, shelter, medicine is a right. Everything else is luxury. | Right to life, liberty, due process is a priority. |
| Constitutionalism | We don't need it; we have a National Charter | We need it; without it, we won't have rule of law |
| Land Policy | Land belongs to the central government | Land belongs to the people and is administered locally. |
| Refugees in Sudan | Sudan is their second country; let them stay there. | There is no reason for refugees to live in refugee camps. They should be repatriated immediately. |
| Economic policy | Must be controlled by the government | Must be loosened to encourage the Eritrean entrepreneur class to return from their disbursed areas |
| Governance | The PFDJ, as the vanguard organization, will rule indefinitely. | There should be political pluralism and contested elections. |
| Foreign Policy | Notwithstanding our size, we should be very assertive. | We should pursue a policy that prioritizes peace and cooperation above all else. |
| Military | We should be constantly in a state of alert and have an oversized military. | We should have a military that fits our size and our budget. |
| Reconciliation | There is no need for anyone to reconcile with anyone: we are one people, one heart | There is a great deal we have to reconcile due to years of suspicion and misunderstanding. |
9. It is entirely possible for an Eriteran to agree with the Opposition in some areas, with the PFDJ in other areas. If the PFDJ has faith in its vision for Eritrea, it would hold free and fair elections and see if the people, on whose behalf it claims to speak, endorse its vision.
10. Finally, everybody within the opposition believes that regrouping and forming a broad coalition is necessary. What has been missing is not on describing what is needed but how to make it a reality.
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