The four franchises that make up the ruling coalition of Ethiopia are having their conference in Hawassa, Ethiopia.
Prior to the umbrella group’s conference, its members had their own organizational congress and some ended up changing their names to reflect their new re-organization as a party and not a front.
The formation of EPRDF, in the late 1980s, owes its rationale to the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF) calculus that they could speed up the demise of the Stalinist regime of Mengistu Hailemariam.
The Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) started out as a multi-ethnic group named EPDM, a splinter of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), one of the first organizations to wage an armed struggle against the Mengistu Hailemariam (Derg) government. Made up of Afro-revolutionaries, ANDM was reduced to an “Amhara” party when its Oromo and Southern Ethiopians joined their respective franchises.
The Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) was set up to counter the influence of the long-established Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) whose “radical” views of future Ethiopia were not aligned with that of the EPLF and TPLF. OPDO, which was partly founded by Ethiopian prisoners of war held by EPLF and TPLF, stopped short of OLF’s “self-determination up to and including secession.”
The South Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) was set up to represent the interests of a constellation of small ethnic groups in Southern Ethiopia and some of its founding members were former members of the nationalist EPDM.
These three organizations, along with founding member TPLF, make up the EPRDF and represent four regions of Ethiopia, each dominated by one ethnic group (SEPDM being the exception.)
Four other regions in the peripheries of Ethiopia have no EPRDF franchise: Gambella, Benishangul, Afar and Ethiopian Somali regions.
In the national elections of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the EPRDF partnered with “allies” from each of the regions to win by landslide elections.
This “franchise” approach to politics allowed each region to become a one-party state and those who found the political space too stifling or non-existent ended up creating armed groups from virtually every region. These include the Tigray People’s Democratic Movement or TPDM for Tigrayans; the Arbegnoch G-7, predominantly for Amhara; the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and its offshoots, for Oromo; the Benishangul-Gumuz People’s Democratic Unity Front for the Benishangul region; the Ogaden National Liberation Front or ONLF (for Ethiopian Somali region); and, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front or ARDUF for Afar Region.
After the last meeting of the Central Committee and Executive Committee of the EPRDF in the first quarter of this year, the OPDO emerged triumphant and its newly-installed chairman, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, was elected as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia.
Dr. Ahmed has revolutionized politics in Ethiopia, vastly expanding political space by de-criminalizing dissent: de-listing “terrorist” organizations; freeing political prisoners and journalists, and conducting outreach to exiled activists and armed political groups.
He has been exceedingly successful in this effort.
The next move, according to the spokesperson for Dr. Abiy Ahmed, appears to be to de-ethnicize politics: emphasize the regional nature of Ethiopia’s federalism instead of the “ethnic federalism” which it devolved to by default of having one ethnic group dominating a region.
“A Federal form of government is a preferred option in Ethiopia as long as we don’t confuse regional arrangements with ethnic identity. Each regional administrative unit should serve all citizens with respect and without discrimination.” PM Abiy Ahmed #EPRDFcongress #Ethiopia pic.twitter.com/K3PnM4Slcn
— Fitsum Arega (@fitsumaregaa) October 3, 2018
There is also the issue of the political ideology of the umbrella group. Prior to the emergence of Abiy Ahmed, the EPRDF espoused “revolutionary democracy” which is supposed to be a fit for nations that undergo disruptive revolutions with the State having a heavy hand in the direction of the State’s economy. In a sense, revolutionary democracy is euphemistic for “developmental state” but most developmental states de-emphasize democracy and focus on rapid development, a “luxury” pluralistic Ethiopia does not have.
Post Dr.Abiy, it appears the two largest members of the coalition, OPDO (now renamed Oromo Democratic Party or ODP) and ANDM (now renamed Amhara Democratic Party ) appear ready to ditch “revolutionary democracy” for liberal democracy. The other two, TPLF and SEPDM appear to be loyal to the “revolutionary democracy” ideal, as well as their legacy names, and they are the ones who have transformed their party the least.
In their respective conferences, the four franchises conducted elections and named their central committees, who will elect their executive committees. Consequently, many veterans–particularly in the Oromo and Amhara franchises–have been unceremoniously booted out, euphemistically known as “asked to resign with honor.” These include long-serving members like Bereket Simon, Tadesse Kassa (Tinkishu), Kassa Teklebirhan, Hilawe Yoseph, etc. The SEPDM changes include new faces even at the chairman level. In contrast, the TPLF appears to have undergone the least amount of change with its leadership, although it elevated its defacto chairman to actual chairmanship.
Despite all the changes, two demographic groups appear to be largely underrepresented in the leadership of EPRDF.
“It is alarming that EPRDF, a party which considers itself progressive, has way below average representation of women and Muslim’s in its governing body,” writes an Ethiopian analyst reached via social media messaging, “That is for all coalition members. For instance, ODP, formerly known as OPDO, represents the largest region in the country with the largest number of Muslims. 50% of the region’s population. Yet, in its central committee, it has less than 15 Muslims. The same thing when it comes to women: there are only 7 women in its central committee of 55.”
Although the case of ODP is glaring, given its chairman’s vocal support for empowering women, the case of the other members of the franchise is no better:
1. ANDM (ADP) Central Committee Members: 55. Female members: 11 (20%)
2. OPDO (ODP) Central Committee Members: 55. Female members 7 (13%)
3. SEPDM Central Committee Members: 65. Female members: 10 (15%)
4. TPLF Central Committee Members: 55. Female Members: 13 (24%)
The representation of Muslim Ethiopians in the EPRDF leadership is even more abysmal.
The EPRDF strategy appears to be to leverage its franchise politics but to open up the electoral process to spare Ethiopia the embarrassment of having a ruling party returning to power with 100% vote count.
In addition to ideological positioning, the EPRDF has now given its competition a weakness to exploit: it under-represents women and Muslims in its ranks. A political party that can enfranchise those who feel left out by its rigidly ethnicist ideology as well as its inability to attract and promote under-represented demographics has a fighting chance of overturning the ruling party’s 27 year chokehold on Ethiopian politics.
The next national elections are slated for 2020.
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