Eritrea By The Numbers (Updated)

It has been 28 years since Eritrea had the misfortune of being ruled by one single party. Many countries that argued a single party is necessary to expedite development were able to deliver on their promise: China, South Korea, Singapore to mention a few.  Then there are countries like Eritrea that have had the tyranny of one party states (in our case, a one man state) who have not only NOT developed but regressed.  This article will document the magnitude of the regression.

When the EPLF stormed into Eritrea 28 years ago, our population was reported to be 2.5 million.  Now, all these years later, it is 3.4 million.  That is: it has been growing at 1.1% and it will take it, at this rate,  63 years to double.  An aside: South Korea is smaller and it has a population of 50 million.  This emptying out of Eritrea was the result of policies pursued by the predatory government which have resulted in wars, economic stagnation and exodus.  The exodus rate (net migration) of Eritreans is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the world.  This is an extremely dangerous phenomenon as Bulgarians and Romanians will testify.

Perversely, this population collapse has given the PFDJ some bragging rights.  After all, statistics is nothing more than a numerator over a denominator and there are two ways to affect it: increase the numerator or decrease the denominator.  The PFDJ is a Denominator Decreasing Demon.  For example, the PFDJ can look at rural electrification and say, hey, look: it is 39.3% for Eritrea and 23.2% for sub-Saharan Africa so hooray for us.  Or as President Isaias Afwerki once told an interviewer: “We are number 1 in Africa.”  But consider: this percent is “people living in rural areas with access to electricity, expressed as percentage of total rural population.”  Even if a government does NOTHING to improve the number of people living with access to electricity, and all it does is reduce the total rural population (as it has, for 15 years), it can claim it made dramatic improvements.  It also can claim credit for work done by the Catholic Church of Eritrea which had a big hand in electrifying rural Eritrea for its social services centers.

Keep this population collapse across all demographic groups when you hear of government propaganda in healthcare services it provides.

Moreover, the PFDJ is fond of comparing Eritrea 2018 with Eritrea 1990 when the true measure should be with Sub-Saharan Africa 2018.  An absolute number given (for example life-expectancy in Eritrea in 2018) or percentage growth means nothing unless it is comparison with Eritrea’s peer group: Sub-Saharan Africa.

When you do that, the numbers and percentages reported (except in vaccination rates) are abysmal.  Whether it is in the field of healthcare (hospital beds per 10,000 people);  education (out-of-school rates, pupil-teacher ratio, teachers trained to teach per 10,000 population); nutrition (underweight, stunting, wasting); children and female quality of life (child marriage, genital mutilation, wife beating); access to water & sanitation (access to improved drinking water sources and sanitation sources); allocation of funds to health, education and social protection services; women’s empowerment; GDP/capita; development assistance/capita… the government of Eritrea has failed the people miserably.

Here’s the most telling data: The GDP/capita for sub-Saharan Africa is only $1,625.  The GDP/capita for the Least Developed Countries is only $1,114.  This is dreadful and it means it will take sub-Saharan Africa the Least Developed Countries and will take us a very long time to even catch up to Central Asia, never mind far East Asia, never mind Western Europe or North America.   BUT.  This is the most damning number of PFDJ: Eritrea’s GDP is $811.  That is HALF of sub-Saharan Africa.   This alone should result in the government resigning for its failure.  It is this one that has resulted in the people having no confidence on the regime.  But the government has not once taken responsibility for its failures, as it is constantly coming up with new parties–US hegemony, Weyane, Weyto, Whinos–to blame for its failures.  And as long as it does that (and its DNA indicates it will), there is no hope that things will change as long as this group of nincompoops and nitwits are in charge of Eritrea.